Renowned cryptocurrency analyst TechDev suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may currently be trapped in a bear market designed to weed out weak investors before a significant upward price movement. The anonymous analyst shares a Bitcoin chart on the social media platform X, indicating that BTC’s price action is resembling its pre-parabola pattern from 2017, following around 1,200 days of accumulation.

TechDev’s chart also incorporates the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) metric, which assesses market sentiment by tracking the unrealized gains and losses of all circulating coins. According to the analyst’s chart, Bitcoin’s NUPL goes through four stages during a bull cycle: hope, optimism, belief, and euphoria. TechDev suggests that Bitcoin is currently in the belief stage, which typically sees the most significant rallies during a bull run.

TechDev further presents another chart illustrating what they believe are the 16 different stages of the Bitcoin market cycle. The analyst argues that BTC is presently in the “bear trap” phase, characterized by a correction prompted by concerns of overvaluation and premature fears of the cycle’s end. This phase occurs just before a substantial expansion into the euphoria zone.

Additionally, TechDev examines two indicators—the relative strength index (RSI) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) index—that have historically been effective in signaling the start and end of previous Bitcoin blow-off tops. The RSI is a momentum indicator, while the CMF is a volume-weighted average of accumulation and distribution over a specific period. TechDev asserts that the RSI indicates market tops, while the CMF predicts blow-offs.

Upon analyzing TechDev’s chart, it appears that the RSI has yet to reach a descending resistance line that typically signifies the end of bull markets in previous cycles. Meanwhile, the CMF has recently surpassed a resistance level that has previously indicated the beginning of significant Bitcoin rallies.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is being traded at $55,282.