Bitcoin (BTC) is on the verge of a significant shift as it experiences an unprecedented period of low volatility, as per a well-known on-chain analyst.

Checkmate, a pseudonymous analyst with a large following on X, reveals to his 93,700 followers that BTC has only fluctuated by 8.3% over the past month, a rare occurrence for the leading cryptocurrency.

This situation presents two potential outcomes, according to the analyst.

“Bitcoin rarely sees such calmness. The price range over the last 30 days has only varied by 8.3%. There are two possibilities: 1) Bitcoin continues as a stablecoin for a new era, or 2) Volatility is on the horizon.”

Checkmate also shares a chart featuring the short-term holder sell-side risk ratio indicator, which aims to forecast whether short-term holders are preparing to sell their coins, possibly triggering a correction.

According to the analyst, the current status of the indicator suggests low sell-side risk, which, as shown on the chart, has historically coincided with price bottoms or rallies.

“The Bitcoin sell-side risk ratio is a valuable metric for navigating volatility. When it decreases (as it does today), it indicates that all the potential profit and loss have been realized. The market needs a push to encourage the next wave of spending.”

The analyst also highlights Bitcoin’s short-term holder spent output profit ratio (STH-SOPR) metric, which monitors the profit or loss levels of all BTC moved by short-term holders within a specific period.

Checkmate notes that recently, Bitcoin’s STH-SOPR briefly dropped below the “1” level before bouncing back. This quick rebound is viewed as a positive sign for the BTC market.

“Some investors bought Bitcoin at a high price and are now selling it at a low, which is evident. Keep an eye on STH-SOPR for a change in market sentiment: – A sharp dip below 1.0 followed by a recovery = Positive – Sustained breaks below 1.0 = Negative – Resistance at 1.0 = Prepare for turbulence.”

As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $66,544.

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