Galaxy Executive 900 million Mt Gox Repayments Unlikely
The head of research at Galaxy, a crypto financial services firm, is calming concerns about the potential collapse of Bitcoin due to the upcoming Mt.Gox repayments. Alex Thorn, in an interview on the Unchained Podcast YouTube channel, revealed that Mt.Gox is expected to repay creditors with approximately 142,000 BTC, equivalent to almost $9 billion, starting in July through October. The news of these impending BTC disbursements caused a significant stir in the crypto markets last week, leading to over $313 million in liquidations. However, Thorn reassures that the fear surrounding the Mt.Gox situation is likely exaggerated, as his research indicates that less than half of the coins will be available for sale on the open market. Additionally, he believes that the recipients of the repayments are more likely to hold onto their BTC rather than sell immediately. Thorn explains that individuals set to receive their BTC in the coming months have agreed to a 10% to 11% reduction in order to take advantage of Mt.Gox’s early payout program. Based on this, he estimates that the number of BTC for delivery will be reduced to 94,600 coins. Thorn also mentions that many people have previously sold their bankruptcy claims to funds at a discount. He reveals that these funds have aggressively purchased claims from Mt.Gox users who did not want to wait years before receiving any compensation. Approximately 20,000 BTC is believed to be held by these funds, leaving a remaining amount of 74,000 coins. Thorn suggests that these funds are unlikely to be significant sources of selling, as the entities that provided liquidity to acquire the claims are expected to hold onto the coins once they are released. He explains that in his conversations with these funds and their liquidity providers, it appears that they plan to deliver the BTC to their LPs and that their LP bases consist mainly of high-net-worth Bitcoiners who are seeking to acquire Bitcoin at a discount. Thorn further mentions that the last group of recipients set to receive BTC from Mt.Gox is the crypto exchange Bitcoinica, which is expected to collect 10,000 BTC. However, Bitcoinica cannot immediately sell its Bitcoin as it needs to go through its bankruptcy process in New Zealand. Overall, Thorn estimates that 64,000 BTC will be distributed to the trading accounts of the creditors. He believes that these entities, who are early Bitcoin adopters, are more likely to hold onto their BTC rather than sell it upon receipt. In conclusion, Thorn expects there to be minimal selling of BTC from the Mt.Gox repayments, contrary to what the headlines may suggest.