A well-known trader, famous for making accurate predictions in the crypto market, has shared his Bitcoin forecast following the recent halving. Going by the pseudonym Dave the Wave, this analyst has a large following of 147,000 on the social media platform X. He has posted a chart indicating that Bitcoin could potentially reach a price of $169,500 by the last quarter of 2024.

Dave the Wave has observed that Bitcoin has consistently shown diminishing returns after each bull market since 2012. In the current cycle, he predicts that BTC will generate gains of over 626% from its lowest point. This is a significant decrease compared to the 1,275% gains witnessed during the 2020 cycle. According to him, the only consistent factor is reduced returns.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is being traded at $66,938, showing an increase of over 3.5% in the past day. Dave the Wave analyzes Bitcoin’s potential future trajectory using the logarithmic growth curve (LGC), an investment model that aims to predict the highs and lows of BTC’s market cycle while filtering out short-term volatility.

The analyst explains that it is not unusual for Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high before the halving. According to him, the halving serves as the midpoint of a bull market, and he expects BTC to experience a sharp rally from this point towards the top of his LGC model.

Dave the Wave emphasizes that previous halvings have always coincided with previous all-time highs, and the price of Bitcoin during the halving has been close to the previous cycle’s peak. He sees halvings as price recoveries and a halfway point towards the peaks. He also notes that despite a nominal higher price being seen on the second peak, the initial peak of the previous cycle should be considered the macro top in terms of momentum.

In conclusion, Dave the Wave’s charts suggest that halvings have historically resulted in price recoveries and have marked a midway point towards the peaks. However, it is important for investors to conduct their own research and exercise caution when making high-risk investments in Bitcoin, cryptocurrencies, or digital assets.