Benjamin Cowen is suggesting that the price movement of Bitcoin (BTC) could resemble that of the Nasdaq exchange-traded fund (ETF) Invesco QQQ during the first 13 months following its launch approximately 26 years ago.

In a new video, Cowen informs his 855,000 YouTube subscribers that the QQQ ETF reached a local peak after surging by 150% in roughly one year after the ETF’s launch. The QQQ ETF tracks the performance of the 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.

As the leading digital asset nears the first anniversary of the launch of the spot Bitcoin ETF, Cowen indicates that the crypto leader may replicate similar price movements, although it is unlikely to “play out the exact same way.”

“In 1999, the QQQ ETF launched in March and it rallied from around $48 to $120. That rally from $48 to $120 took about 54 weeks – $48 to $120…

…if you look at Bitcoin’s ETF, it launched at around $48,000… if you examine the launch of the spot ETF for Bitcoin, it spiked up to $48,000 instead of declining to it as was the case with the QQQ [ETF]. Interestingly enough, 54 weeks later is January 20th – Inauguration Day [of President-elect Donald Trump], which is intriguing because 54 weeks after the launch of the QQQ, it was 54 weeks later that the QQQ rose from about $48 to $120.

Now look at this, if you analyze Bitcoin on the daily time frame and connect these highs here [$99,600, $104,100, and $108,200] and extend that out, what’s fascinating is if you take a sort of price label and project it over to January 20th and up to this trend line, it would place you at $120,000, which is exactly what the QQQ did – it increased from $48 to $120, 54 weeks later.”


Source: Benjamin Cowen/YouTube

Cowen states that if Bitcoin’s price action closely follows that of the QQQ ETF in the first 13 months of its existence, a 48% drop is a possibility.

“Obviously, this is very dubious, and obviously, we know that QQQ experienced a significant drop afterward…

…what I would be interested in is if Bitcoin finds itself at $120,000 at some point in a few weeks, what the reaction would be? One potential outcome… basically what happened with the QQQ is that after it hit $120, it experienced a large drop down to $63, which is a considerable decline.”


Source: Benjamin Cowen/YouTube

Bitcoin is trading at $101,484 at the time of writing.
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